The ProblemAccording to the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, some 44 states are facing shortfalls in their budgets for this and/or next year. New mid-year fiscal year 2009 shortfalls of $42 billion have opened up in the budgets of at least 41 states and the District of Columbia. Budget deficits are already projected in 38 states for the upcoming fiscal year. Initial estimates of these shortfalls total almost $80 billion. As the full extent of 2010 deficits become known, shortfalls are likely to equal $145 billion. Combined budget gaps for the remainder of this fiscal year and state fiscal years 2010 and 2011 are estimated to total $350 billion to $370 billion.
Balanced Budget RequirementUnlike the federal government, states cannot run deficits when the economy turns down; they must cut expenditures, raise taxes or draw down reserve funds to balance their budgets. Therefore, at least 19 states have implemented or are considering cuts that will affect programs for low income children or families, and programs for the elderly and disabled. At least 18 states are cutting medical, rehabilitative, home care, or other services. At least 20 states are cutting or proposing to cut K-12 and early education; several of them are also reducing access to child care and early education, and at least 26 states have implemented or proposed cuts to public colleges and universities. In addition, at least 34 states have proposed or implemented reductions to their state workforce.
Potential Impact on TaxpayersIn addition to the reduction of services provided by the states, the states may be forced or compelled to raise taxes, or eliminate tax credits or exemptions. Therefore, over the next few months, we expect some states to propose tax increases, and/or to propose to eliminate popular tax credit/refund programs and exemptions. Meaning, the taxing structure of several states is likely to change. The impact of these changes will not be known until proposals are made and passed. In addition, we also expect states to become more aggressive with issuing notices and audit assessments.
Glass Half-FullOn a positive note, the projected budget shortfalls do not account for the effects of major economic recovery legislation. If states receive fiscal aid, these shortfalls would be smaller. In addition, if economic growth was significantly better than projected, state revenue collections would likely be higher than projected.
ConclusionWe will be monitoring any proposals by the states and keep you posted of any major changes that will impact taxpayers. If you have any questions regarding a specific state's activities, please contact me at
leveragesalt@earthlink.net.